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See detailApplying non-parametric models to explore urban life satisfaction in European cities
Moeinaddini, Mehdi ULiege; Asadi-Shekari, Zohreh; Aghaabbasi, Mahdi et al

in Cities (2020), 105

Although urban quality of life is one of the important topics in most of the European policies, these policies are not supported by empirical analysis. Furthermore, there are few studies in urban quality ... [more ▼]

Although urban quality of life is one of the important topics in most of the European policies, these policies are not supported by empirical analysis. Furthermore, there are few studies in urban quality of life area that consider a sufficiently large number of cities and related factors and those that focused on European cities applied parametric analysis techniques that cannot handle multicollinearity. To remedy the aforementioned shortcomings, in this study, a large number of factors related to urban quality of life are investigated in different European cities, and to handle multicollinearity, non-parametric analysis techniques are adopted. The data stem from the Eurostat (2015), collecting information on urban quality of life for >40,000 citizens in 112 urban areas. Different non-parametric modeling techniques are applied and the results of the method that yielded the highest overall accuracy, i.e. the C5.0 algorithm, are presented. The results show that from the wide scope of considered factors, five main variables play an important role in urban life satisfaction, i.e. (i) feeling safe in the city, (ii) satisfaction with healthcare services in the city, (iii) satisfaction with the state of streets and buildings in the neighborhood, (iv) satisfaction with public transport in the city, and (v) availability of retail shops. [less ▲]

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See detailInvestigating on-road crash risk and traffic offences in Vietnam using the motorcycle rider behaviour questionnaire (MRBQ)
Bui Trung Hiep, ULiege; Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Cools, Mario ULiege

in Safety Science (2020), 130

The factor structure of the Motorcycle Rider Behaviour Questionnaire (MRBQ) was investigated in Vietnam, a developing country with an extensive motorcycling culture. In addition, we examined which of the ... [more ▼]

The factor structure of the Motorcycle Rider Behaviour Questionnaire (MRBQ) was investigated in Vietnam, a developing country with an extensive motorcycling culture. In addition, we examined which of the MRBQ factors, riding information and demographic variables predict motorists’ crash risks and traffic violations. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of the MRBQ revealed a clear four-factor structure of 36 items (N = 2.254 riders). This study highlights some critical differences between motorists from Vietnam and other countries. Vietnamese riders without a driver’s licence had lower on-road crash/near-crash rates, and the use of safety equipment paradoxically increased the incidence of crash risks. Furthermore, crash/near-crash liability and offences of Vietnamese motorcyclists rose with riding years (in terms of years already riding a motorcycle). The 36-item version of the MRBQ provided in this paper may be applied to other motorcycling countries. Besides, based on the robust relationships between the MRBQ factors and accident risks, new effective on-road safety strategies can focus on minimizing the common aberrant riding behaviours such as traffic errors, control errors, speed and alcohol-related violations in Vietnam. [less ▲]

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See detailSocio-cognitive factors in road safety monitoring: Cross-cultural comparison of driving under the influence of alcohol, drugs, or medication
Meesmann, Uta ULiege; Torfs, Katrien; Cools, Mario ULiege

in IATSS Research (2020), 44(3),

The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between socio-cognitive factors and unsafe traffic behaviour in different cultural settings based on the results of the second edition of ESRA (E ... [more ▼]

The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between socio-cognitive factors and unsafe traffic behaviour in different cultural settings based on the results of the second edition of ESRA (E-Survey of Road users’ Attitudes), conducted in 32 countries in 2018 (ESRA2). The investigation focuses on the topic driving under the influence of alcohol, drugs, and medication (DUI) and related socio-cognitive constructs, such as attitudes , norms , perceived behaviour control , intention , habits , and risk perception . Cultural differences were assessed using the examples of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Egypt, Japan, Nigeria, and Slovenia. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to test the dimensions of the underlying socio-cognitive constructs and to define composite scores for the following analyses. Linear regression models were fitted to investigate the association between these socio-cognitive factors and selfreported DUI. The same set of variables was used for all the linear regression models, that is, the cross-national model (32 countries) and the seven national models. In total, 25,459 car drivers (at least a few days a month) were included in this analysis. The results show that ( i ) the considered socio-cognitive factors are able to predict selfreported DUI across different countries; ( ii ) these socio-cognitive factors are also able to predict DUI on a national level; and ( iii ) the impact of socio-cognitive factors on DUI differs across countries. The strongest predictor in all countries was the construct of habits , followed by norms and to a lesser extent attitudes and intentions . Perceived behaviour control and risk perception only showed a significant effect on reported DUI in a few countries. In conclusion, the ESRA2 data offer a unique opportunity to gain valuable insights into cross-cultural differences in traffic safety. Future research should focus on a more in-depth analysis of cultural differences on other road safety topics. [less ▲]

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See detailProposing a new score to measure personal happiness by identifying the contributing factors
Moeinaddini, Mehdi ULiege; Asadi-Shekari, Zohreh; Aghaabbasi, Mahdi et al

in Measurement (2020), 151

Different assessment tools and questionnaires have been developed to measure happiness. The Oxford Happiness Questionnaire (OHQ), that has 29 items, has been used widely to estimate personal happiness ... [more ▼]

Different assessment tools and questionnaires have been developed to measure happiness. The Oxford Happiness Questionnaire (OHQ), that has 29 items, has been used widely to estimate personal happiness. The OHQ is used to quantify personal happiness based on an equal effectiveness assumption for all 29 items. Although the OHQ has been used by several studies, very few studies assess the contribution of the individual OHQ items in explaining personal happiness. The current study attempts to fill this gap by assessing the contribution of the individual OHQ items in explaining personal happiness as a latent variable. Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is used to assess the relationship of the individual OHQ items in explaining personal happiness in Skudai, Johor, Malaysia. The significant OHQ items that are extracted from SEM results, are used to develop a new personal happiness measurement score. The SEM factor loading values are used to weight the extracted items. All usual clustering methods are used in this study and the most suitable one based on the higher silhouette value is chosen to cluster the proposed personal happiness index. Finally, the relationships between socio demographic factors and the proposed personal happiness index clusters are tested by Gamm and Pearson Chi-Square tests. The SEM results show that 16 out of the 29 OHQ items have poor associations with personal happiness and can be excluded from the model. Most of the non-significant items (items with low level of association) are negatively worded items and the majority of the significant items are related to personal attitudes. The proposed personal happiness index can help to save time and avoid confusion. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd [less ▲]

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See detailOpportunities for reinforcing cross-border railway connections: the case of the Liège (Belgium) - Maastricht (the Netherlands) connection
Wilmotte, Pierre-François ULiege; Mostert, Martine ULiege; Christmann, Nathalie et al

in European Planning Studies (2020)

Efficient mobility is an essential driving force for the development of cross-border (CB) regions. The different settings and visions of neighbouring CB entities may lead to unsatisfactory transport ... [more ▼]

Efficient mobility is an essential driving force for the development of cross-border (CB) regions. The different settings and visions of neighbouring CB entities may lead to unsatisfactory transport connections across the border. This case study of a CB connection focuses on this issue and highlights, by means of a comparative analysis, how the differences in six perspectives (the economic context; urban and regional planning in Belgium and the Netherlands; the structure of the rail network; barriers in the exploitation of the railway; the current travel demand by rail; and the governance, public planning and policy context) lead to an unsatisfactory rail connection between Liège (Belgium) and Maastricht (the Netherlands). Based on the results of the analysis, we suggest reinforcing cross-mobility connections through several tools such as (i) the development of a common governance, by including economic and social stakeholders; (ii) the development of joint technical projects in relation to the infrastructure, communication systems and the rolling stock; and (iii) the strengthening of flows between the two sides of the border, especially the home-work flows. [less ▲]

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See detailEvaluation of the potential of classic and electric bicycle commuting as an impetus for the transition towards environmentally sustainable cities: A case study of the university campuses in Liege, Belgium
Kameni Nematchoua, Modeste ULiege; Caroline, Deuse; Cools, Mario ULiege et al

in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (2020), 119

To address the negative effects of car use, conventional and electric bicycles are often proposed as environment-friendly alternatives. The aim of this research is to identify the prospects of a modal ... [more ▼]

To address the negative effects of car use, conventional and electric bicycles are often proposed as environment-friendly alternatives. The aim of this research is to identify the prospects of a modal shift towards conventional and electric bicycles based on a case study analysing the mobility generated by the three main campuses of the University of Liège in Belgium. In the theoretical part of this paper, the known factors and strategies that affect most of the bicycle use in Europe are summarised and the need for a deeper understanding of the elements that promote a modal shift from bus and car users to the use of electric bicycles is highlighted. Consequently, the results of a survey conducted among the university population of the University of Liège(students, PhD students, and staff members; including 1496 questionnaire responses)are presented and analysed in detail. The Net Promoter Score (NPS), as an indicator of the user satisfaction, confirms that the bicycle has the best NPS compared with the main modes of transport (car and bus) and that the electric bicyclehas a greater NPS than the conventional bicycle. The importance of many factors affecting the use of cycling is lower if we consider the electric bicycleinstead of the conventional bicycle. Considering the current travel patterns in terms of the distances travelled, the potential for the use of conventional bicycles only reaches 23% of the university users, whereas that of electric bicycles reaches 70%. In the pursuit of a modal report, the most imminent factor is the development of safe bike paths, where a potential increase in the bicycle use is acknowledged by 74% of the students, 62% of the staff members, 62% of the car users, and 82% of the bus users. Finally, because the lack of safe cycle lanes remains the major obstacle with respect to the use of both bicycle types, the development and/or improvement of a comfortable and secure infrastructure for cyclists within a radius of 12 km from the main school and work places, especially in the main residential and commercial areas, should be prioritised to promote the use of both types of bicycles. [less ▲]

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See detailValidation of the Theory of planned behaviour in different cultural settings – international comparison of drunk-driving across 5 countries
Meesmann, Uta ULiege; Torfs, Katrien; Cools, Mario ULiege

Conference (2019, August)

Key-words. driving under the influence; alcohol; theory of planned behaviour; international survey; road safety culture Background. Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB, Ajzen, 1991) is a psychological model ... [more ▼]

Key-words. driving under the influence; alcohol; theory of planned behaviour; international survey; road safety culture Background. Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB, Ajzen, 1991) is a psychological model which is widely used in traffic research to predict e.g. drunk-driving (Moan & Rise, 2011; Rivis et al., 2011, Chan et al., 2010). Some studies question its validity in cross-cultural application especially in developing countries (Nordfjærn et al., 2011). Objectives. The objective of the present study is to validate the TPB model in different cultural settings. The study is based on the results of a spin-off of ESRA (E-Survey of Road users’ Attitudes; Meesmann et al., 2018) in 2017. It investigates cross-cultural differences in self-declared drunk-driving and related behaviour determinants (TPB), such as social norms, attitudes, self-efficacy and habits in Austria, Brazil, Canada, India, Nigeria and the United Kingdom. Methods. In each county a representative sample of the national adult population (N=500) was requested to complete an online survey. Linear regression models were used to investigate the association between the behaviour determinants and self-declared drunk-driving. The models were fitted on the whole sample and the national samples separately. Results. The results show that unsafe road safety attitudes, personal and perceived acceptability of drunk-driving, a low self-efficacy to control drunk-driving, unsafe intention and habits were significantly associated with self-declared drunk-driving. The linear regression models of drunk-driving explained a satisfactory amount of variance in all countries but was lower in Nigeria (R2 Nigeria .48 all other countries >.61). Conclusions. The results of this study support the validity of the TPB model in these cross-cultural settings. The intention is to elaborate this investigation to the 32 countries of the ESRA2 survey, which will be conducted in November 2018. [less ▲]

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See detailDevelopment and validation of a survey for wellbeing and interaction assessment by occupants in office buildings with adaptive facades
Attia, Shady ULiege; Garat, S; Cools, Mario ULiege

in Building and Environment (2019), 157

Assessing well-being and occupants satisfaction is a growing concern in façade design practice, as increasing recognition of the value of well-being of occupants in office buildings. The objective of this ... [more ▼]

Assessing well-being and occupants satisfaction is a growing concern in façade design practice, as increasing recognition of the value of well-being of occupants in office buildings. The objective of this study was to develop a validated survey for evaluating the indoor environmental quality in office buildings with adaptive facades to provide feedback to designers and operators and inform the building community at a large. A total of 70 employees completed an initial survey containing 14 questions grouped into six domains (OCAFAS-14). Factor analysis of the responses was performed resulting into a final survey grouped into three domains and containing 15 questions (general feeling, thermal comfort and acoustic comfort) (OCAFAS-15). Statistical analysis indicated that the OCAFAS-15 had good validity, reliability, and internal consistency. The survey succeeded to benchmark well-being, satisfaction and interaction changes of employees in an open-space office with dynamic louvers. The results indicates that the OCAFAS-15 provides a basis for dialogue between occupants and façade engineers regarding the user interaction, façade control adaptation and in particular in tracking of changes of indoor environmental quality, evaluating response of facades to occupants’ requirements, and guiding the operation of adaptive facades. A validated well-being and occupant interaction survey could be particularly useful in benchmarking building with adaptive facades and recognizing and managing occupants’ dissatisfaction in buildings with dynamic facades. [less ▲]

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See detailExploring effective micro-level items for evaluating inclusive walking facilities on urban streets (applied in Johor Bahru, Malaysia)
Asadi-Shekari, Zohreh; Moeinaddini, Mehdi ULiege; Aghaabbasi, Mahdi et al

in Sustainable Cities and Society (2019), 49

Modern cities try to provide enough facilities for inclusive and pedestrian-friendly streets. Evaluating and designing models that consider a wide range of street users, including disabled people, can ... [more ▼]

Modern cities try to provide enough facilities for inclusive and pedestrian-friendly streets. Evaluating and designing models that consider a wide range of street users, including disabled people, can help urban planners to design these inclusive streets. The results of existing (but limited) studies evaluating street conditions for pedestrians do not include a wide range of street users. Therefore, this paper seeks to propose a new model for evaluating and improving urban streets, focusing on inclusive pedestrian facilities. This study introduces pedestrian mobility indicators using advanced design guidelines, existing literature and expert interviews. These indicators are evaluated by exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to find underlying patterns. Levels of association between observed and latent variables are tested by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and second-order confirmatory factor analysis (SOCFA). Structural equation modelling (SEM) is used to perform the CFA and SOCFA analyses. A questionnaire was used to collect data from 599 participants randomly selected from Setia Tropika residents (Johor, Malaysia). The resultant factor loading values are used as weights in an analytical points-based system, comparing existing facilities to a standard to estimate street facilities and infrastructure levels of service for pedestrians. This pedestrian level of service (PLOS) can be applied to various urban streets around the world, but in this study a street in Malaysia is evaluated using this method to check the accuracy of the proposed PLOS model. Existing street problems and potential improvements can be identified by this model. [less ▲]

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See detailTravel behaviour and social network interactions with the urban environment, a review
de Abreu e Silva, João; Adamos, Giannis; Esztergar-Kiss, Domokos et al

in O. Plaut, Pnina; Shach-Pinsly, Dalit (Eds.) Digital Social Networks and Travel Behaviour in Urban Environments (2019)

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See detailSmart City appropriation by local actors: An instrument in the making
Desdemoustier, Jonathan ULiege; Crutzen, Nathalie ULiege; Cools, Mario ULiege et al

in Cities (2019), 92

The Smart City became a dominant discourse as a new approach to mitigate and remedy to current urban and societal problems. Numerous cities are engaged in a Smart City process to address their local ... [more ▼]

The Smart City became a dominant discourse as a new approach to mitigate and remedy to current urban and societal problems. Numerous cities are engaged in a Smart City process to address their local challenges. But different actor’s appropriations and styles of implementation produce particular territorial and societal developments. This paper questions in an innovative way the actors’ appropriation of the Smart City: the phenomenon is considered as an instrument, following the theory of Lascoumes and Le Galès (2007). On basis of an online survey with 193 Belgian respondents, the results of several statistical treatments validate an appropriation of the Smart City between a public policy instrument in one side and a functional instrument in the other side. But across the five categories of actors (Elected politician (1), administrations and public organizations (2), private companies (3), research centers & universities (4) and associations (5)), the Belgian respondents do not fit into one or the other instrument in a monolithic way. The actor’s appropriation does not follow a homogeneous trend based on a technical and holistic direction, like it is represented in the literature. [less ▲]

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See detailAn efficient hierarchical model for multi-source information fusion
Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Farooq, Bilal; Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ULiege et al

in Expert Systems with Applications (2018), 110

In urban and transportation research, important information is often scattered over a wide variety of independent datasets which vary in terms of described variables and sampling rates. As activity-travel ... [more ▼]

In urban and transportation research, important information is often scattered over a wide variety of independent datasets which vary in terms of described variables and sampling rates. As activity-travel behavior of people depends particularly on socio-demographics and transport/urban-related variables, there is an increasing need for advanced methods to merge information provided by multiple urban/transport household surveys. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical algorithm based on a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and an Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) procedure to obtain quasi-perfect marginal distributions and accurate multi-variate joint distributions. The model allows for the combination of an unlimited number of datasets. The model is validated on the basis of a synthetic dataset with 1,000,000 observations and 8 categorical variables. The results reveal that the hierarchical model is particularly robust as the deviation between the simulated and observed multivariate joint distributions is extremely small and constant, regardless of the sampling rates and the composition of the datasets in terms of variables included in those datasets. Besides, the presented methodological framework allows for an intelligent merging of multiple data sources. Furthermore, heterogeneity is smoothly incorporated into micro-samples with small sampling rates subjected to potential sampling bias. These aspects are handled simultaneously to build a generalized probabilistic structure from which new observations can be inferred. A major impact in term of expert systems is that the outputs of the hierarchical model (HM) model serve as a basis for a qualitative and quantitative analyses of integrated datasets. [less ▲]

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See detailInvestigating the impact of river floods on travel demand based on an agent-based modeling approach: The case of Liège, Belgium
Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege; Teller, Jacques ULiege et al

in Transport Policy (2018), 67

In Belgium, river floods are among the most frequent natural disasters and they may have important consequences on travel demand. In order to better understand how the travel patterns vary, we propose to ... [more ▼]

In Belgium, river floods are among the most frequent natural disasters and they may have important consequences on travel demand. In order to better understand how the travel patterns vary, we propose to set up a large scale scenario based on MATSim for guarantying an accurate assessment of the impact of river floods on the transportation system. As inputs, the current agent-based model requires a base year population. A synthetic population with respective set of attributes is generated as a key input. Afterwards, agents are assigned activity chains through an activity-based generation process. Finally, the synthetic population and the transportation network are integrated into MATSim. Regarding data, households travel surveys, OD matrix of Belgium have been used to set up the demand. For simulating river floods effects, a steady-state inundation map has been integrated within MATSim. In the current study, five scenarios have been tested where critical links are associated various levels of service, i.e. 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 100% (base case scenario). They are systematically compared to the standard scenario to estimate the deviations in terms of traffic patterns and travel times. The results suggest that compared to the standard scenario, the average trip travel time increased by 16.36%, 44.44%, 126.77% and 144.44% with respect to scenarios 75%, 50%, 25% and 10% respectively. Also, the traffic flows have been re-distributed more uniformly across the transportation network. Roads with important traffic volumes are subjected to a decrease of activity on the contrary of roads with low traffic volumes. A very few studies have focused on how river floods affect transportation systems, this paper provided new insights in term of methodology and traffic patterns analysis under disruptions. [less ▲]

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See detailInvestigating scalability in population synthesis: a comparative approach
Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Eftekhar, Hamed ULiege; Teller, Jacques ULiege et al

in Transportation Planning and Technology (2018), 41(7), 724-735

In this paper, we investigate the influence of scalability on the accuracy of different synthetic populations using both fitting and generation-based approaches. Most activity-based models need a base ... [more ▼]

In this paper, we investigate the influence of scalability on the accuracy of different synthetic populations using both fitting and generation-based approaches. Most activity-based models need a base-year synthetic population of agents with various attributes. However, when several attributes need to be synthesized, the accuracy of the synthetic population may decrease due to the mixed effects of scalability and dimensionality. We analyze two population synthesis methods for different levels of scalability, i.e. two to five attributes and different sample sizes – 10%, 25% and 50%. Results reveal that the simulation-based approach is more stable than Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) when the number of attributes increases. However, IPF is less sensitive to changes in sample size when compared to the simulation-based approach. We also demonstrate the importance of choosing the appropriate metric to validate the synthetic populations as the trends in terms of RMSE/MAE are different from those of SRMSE. [less ▲]

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See detailComparison among three automated calibration methods for cellular automata land use change model: GA, PSO and MCMC
Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ULiege; Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Ebaid, Amr et al

in Proceedings of AGILE conference 2018 (2018, June)

Spatial cellular automata (CA) model is one of the most common approaches to simulate land use change. Generally, CA estimates the transition likelihood from one land use state to another according to ... [more ▼]

Spatial cellular automata (CA) model is one of the most common approaches to simulate land use change. Generally, CA estimates the transition likelihood from one land use state to another according to local neighbourhood dynamics and global drivers. Logistic regression (logit) method is widely used to calibrate CA models. Recently, several optimization algorithms have been introduced to calibrate CA models. This study compares the performance of three optimization algorithms: (i) genetic algorithm (GA), (ii) particle swarm optimization (PSO), (iii) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The three algorithms are incorporated into a CA model to simulate urban expansion in Wallonia (Belgium). In addition, we compare the three calibration algorithms with the logit method. The results show that all three algorithms outperformed the logit method. The results also reveal that the performance of GA is slightly better than PSO and MCMC. [less ▲]

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See detailComparing support vector machines with logistic regression for calibrating cellular automata land use change models
Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ULiege; Rienow, Andreas; Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege et al

in European Journal of Remote Sensing (2018), 51(1), 391-401

Land use change models enable the exploration of the drivers and consequences of land use dynamics. A broad array of modeling approaches are available and each type has certain advantages and ... [more ▼]

Land use change models enable the exploration of the drivers and consequences of land use dynamics. A broad array of modeling approaches are available and each type has certain advantages and disadvantages depending on the objective of the research. This paper presents an approach combining cellular automata (CA) model and supported vector machines (SVMs) for modeling urban land use change in Wallonia (Belgium) between 2000 and 2010. The main objective of this study is to compare the accuracy of allocating new land use transitions based on CA-SVMs approach with conventional coupled logistic regression method (logit) and CA (CA-logit). Both approaches are used to calibrate the CA transition rules. Various geophysical and proximity factors are considered as urban expansion driving forces. Relative operating characteristic and a fuzzy map comparison are employed to evaluate the performance of the model. The evaluation processes highlight that the allocation ability of CA-SVMs slightly outperforms CA-logit approach. The paper also reveals that the major urban expansion determinant is urban road infrastructure. [less ▲]

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See detailModelling built-up expansion and densification with multinomial logistic regression, cellular automata and genetic algorithm
El Saeid Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed ULiege; Heppenstall, Alison; Omrani, Hichem et al

in Computers, Environment and Urban Systems (2018), 67

This paper presents a model to simulate built-up expansion and densification based on a combination of a non-ordered multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and cellular automata (CA). The probability for ... [more ▼]

This paper presents a model to simulate built-up expansion and densification based on a combination of a non-ordered multinomial logistic regression (MLR) and cellular automata (CA). The probability for built-up development is assessed based on (i) a set of built-up development causative factors and (ii) the land-use of neighboring cells. The model considers four built-up classes: non built-up, low-density, medium-density and high-density built-up. Unlike the most commonly used built-up/urban models which simulate built-up expansion, our approach considers expansion and the potential for densification within already built-up areas when their present density allows it. The model is built, calibrated, and validated for Wallonia region (Belgium) using cadastral data. Three 100 × 100 m raster-based built-up maps for 1990, 2000, and 2010 are developed to define one calibration interval (1990–2000) and one validation interval (2000 − 2010). The causative factors are calibrated using MLR whereas the CA neighboring effects are calibrated based on a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The calibrated model is applied to simulate the built-up pattern in 2010. The simulated map in 2010 is used to evaluate the model's performance against the actual 2010 map by means of fuzzy set theory. According to the findings, land-use policy, slope, and distance to roads are the most important determinants of the expansion process. The densification process is mainly driven by zoning, slope, distance to different roads and richness index. The results also show that the densification generally occurs where there are dense neighbors whereas areas with lower densities retain their densities over time. [less ▲]

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See detailAn analysis of the development of port operation in da Nang Port, Vietnam
Nguyen, Thi Tuyet Minh ULiege; Cools, Mario ULiege

in IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (2018), 143(1),

This paper presents the current operating status in Da Nang Port, Vietnam in the period 2012-2016. The port operation had positive changes that were reflected by a significant increase in total ... [more ▼]

This paper presents the current operating status in Da Nang Port, Vietnam in the period 2012-2016. The port operation had positive changes that were reflected by a significant increase in total throughputs, especially containerized cargo volumes. Classical decomposition techniques are used to find trend-cycle and seasonal components of monthly throughput flows. Appropriate predictive models of different kinds of throughputs are proposed. Finally, a development strategy towards containerization and investment policies in facilities, equipment, and infrastructure are suggested based on the predictive results. © Published under licence by IOP Publishing Ltd. [less ▲]

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See detailA Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models
Mustafa, Ahmed Mohamed El Saeid ULiege; Saadi, Ismaïl ULiege; Cools, Mario ULiege et al

in International Journal of Geographical Information Science (2018), 32(11), 2317-2333

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in ... [more ▼]

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future. [less ▲]

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